我国城市化进程中的农村集体土地产权制度创新研究

由于受现行土地管理法的约束,我国农村集体土地在城市化进程中不能享有与国有土地同等的权利,不仅所有权得不到尊重、使用权受到严格限制,而且土地的主人农村集体和农民个人的土地权益也得不到合理补偿,由征地引发的社会矛盾日益尖锐。为探索保障农村集体土地权益的有效途径,缓解社会矛盾,我国的农村集体土地产权制度必须创新。从尊重现行土地管理法的思路出发,对广大农村和城市化进程中的农村集体土地采取不同的政策,只能是权宜之计,而从尊重农民集体土地所有权的思路出发,变土地管理法主要是约束农民集体行为为约束政府的征地行为,才是最终之本。     

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡的调整:历史的视角

20世纪80年代以来全球经济外部不平衡发生了三次大的调整,每次调整的背景和方式不同。20世纪80年代美日之间的外部不平衡是通过高增长背景下刻意的货币制度设计来完成的,是一种"渐进"的调整方式。20世纪90年代东南亚国家外部不平衡的调整是在高增长背景下,由货币"错配"引发的组合投资逆转带来的以货币危机形式完成的,是一种"休克"的调整方式。而2006年以来至今的美国经济外部不平衡的调整是在金融危机加速全球经济急速下滑的背景下,更可能依靠实体经济总需求的下降来调整,将是一个相对缓慢的过程。     

Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence

This paper analyses the effect of the nominal convergence process on the ability of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to meet both the inflation and the exchange rate criteria for Eurozone entry. The size of these convergence effects on the exchange rate (for inflation targeters) and for inflation differentials (under a fixed exchange rate) is estimated for a variety of different convergence scenarios. The key result, robust across all scenarios, is that countries with fixed exchange rates will find it much harder to simultaneously meet the criteria than inflation targeters. Probit estimates on the ability of a country to get inflation below the reference value under a fixed exchange rate show a strong effect for the relative price level.     

一个解释中国通货膨胀的可行框架:1981—2006

经过修正的财政主导型制度和价格水平决定的财政理论可以分别对1981—1994年和1995—2006年两个时期的通货膨胀史进行解释,其中前者源于对既有经济学文献的综合分析,后者源于以事实为基础的逻辑推理和最新正式经验研究。一个重要的现实政策含义是,要实现价格稳定和可持续经济增长,中国务必要进行第二次制度变革,其方向是以积极型货币政策与被动型财政政策搭配为基础的货币主导型的李嘉图制度。     

试析反垄断法农业豁免制度——兼论我国《反垄断法》第五十六条

美国、欧共体反垄断法的竞争规则不适用农业领域特定行为的基本原理,主要是在于农业生产者的弱势地位和生产风险的防范,目的是追求效率和实现正义。即使在现代经济发展的背景下,农业豁免也仍然存在其合理性。而我国《反垄断法》第五十六条的实施,则需要明确界定农产品和农业经济组织的概念,同时必须对农业豁免采取一定的限制,建立农业豁免的监督机制和撤销机制。     

Smooth Transition ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing

In this paper, we suggest an extension of the ARCH model, the smooth-transition autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (STARCH) model. STARCH models endogenously allow for time-varying shifts in the parameters of the conditional variance equation. The most general form of the model that we consider is a double smooth-transition model, the STAR-STARCH model, which permits not only the conditional variance, but also the mean, to be a function of a smooth-transition term. The threshold ARCH model, the Markov-ARCH model and the standard ARCH model are special cases of our STARCH model. We also develop Lagrange multiplier tests of the hypothesis that the smooth-transition term in the conditional variance is zero. We apply our STARCH model to excess Treasury bill returns. We find some evidence of a smooth transition in excess returns, but in contrast to previous studies, we find almost no evidence of volatility persistence once we allow for smooth transitions in the conditional variance. Thus, the apparent persistence in the conditional variance reported by many researchers could be a mere statistical artifact. We conduct in-sample tests comparing STARCH models to nested competitors; these suggest that STARCH models hold promise for improved predictions. Finally, we describe further extensions of the STARCH model and suggest issues in finance to which they might profitably be applied.     

Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate

Abstract. We consider a diffusion type model for the short rate, where the drift and diffusion parameters are modulated by an underlying Markov process. The underlying Markov process is assumed to have a stochastic differential driven by Wiener processes and a marked point process. The model for the short rate thus falls within the category of hidden Markov models.     

Regime shifts in the Danish term structure of interest rates

Within a bivariate VAR model allowing for two-state Markov regime switching we test and evaluate the Expectations Theory (ET) of the term structure using Danish 1- and 3-months interest rates covering the period 1976–1997. A regime-shift approach is used in order to account for the change in monetary policy and the 1992–93 exchange rate crises that occured during this period. The basic findings are that these episodes did change the term structure, and, although we do find departures from the ET, several of the implications of the theory are consistent with the data, especially in the later part of the sample. First version received: June 1997/Final version received: March 1998     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999